The number of visitors travelling to Guernsey by air increased by an estimated 12% in the first eight months of 2026, with first-time visitors up 30% compared with the same period last year.
Analysis combining Guernsey Ports passenger numbers with estimates from visitor exit surveys gives a more detailed picture of who is travelling on individual air routes, including how many are visitors, how many are coming to Guernsey for the first time and their estimated spend in the island.
Between January and August, 238,953 individual passengers departed Guernsey by air, up 3% on the same period in 2025. Of those, an estimated 119,161 were visitors, up 12%, meaning visitors accounted for half of all departing air passengers compared with 46% in 2025 and 42% in 2024.
The estimated number of first-time visitors increased from 26,924 in January to August 2025 to 35,022 in the same period this year, an increase of 30%. Estimated visitor expenditure associated with air travel increased from £73.9 million to £82.6 million, up around £8.7 million or 12%.
London routes were a particular source of growth. Across Gatwick, London City and Heathrow, estimated visitor numbers reached 49,035, while first-time visitors reached 16,516. Gatwick alone saw estimated visitor numbers increase by 16% and first-time visitors by 35% compared with the same period in 2025.
The picture was more varied across other routes. Estimated visitor numbers increased on Manchester, Bristol, Exeter and Jersey, while falling on Southampton, London City and Alderney.
The Heathrow service, which began in April, carried 16,163 departing passengers in its first five months, including an estimated 10,147 visitors and 5,422 first-time visitors.
Despite operating for only part of the year to date, Heathrow was the fifth-busiest individual air route by departing passenger numbers.
An estimated 63% of Heathrow passengers were visitors, compared with 38% on Gatwick and 49% on Southampton. Of Heathrow visitors, 53% were first-time visitors to Guernsey.
Across the four full months from May to August, Heathrow averaged 1,306 first-time visitors per month, compared with 1,565 on Gatwick, and accounted for 19% of all first time air visitors. Between May and August, monthly departing passenger numbers on Heathrow ranged from 3,468 to 4,047. Estimated visitor spend associated with the route totalled £7.0 million between April and August.
To see all of the data compiled as part of this analysis, go to: https://trade.visitguernsey.com/media/4zwf4woh/gsy-air-connectivity-to-august26.pdf
Deputy Sasha Kazantseva-Miller, President of the Committee for Economic Development, said:
“As part of our work on the new Air Policy, we have been developing more detailed datasets that go beyond the headline passenger numbers, so that we can understand how many people travelling are visitors, how many are new to Guernsey and the value that visitor travel brings to our economy. Thanks to the more detailed assessment developed by the Data & Analysis team, we can understand this picture better on a route-by-route basis. These figures are very encouraging for 2026, despite the geopolitical uncertainty and the changing travel patterns we are seeing. Overall passenger numbers are up, but visitor numbers have grown much faster, and the 30% increase in first-time visitors is particularly positive. Half of departing air passengers are now estimated to be visitors, compared with 42% two years ago.
“The early Heathrow figures continue on a positive trajectory. In its first five months, around 10,000 departing passengers on the route were estimated to be visitors and more than half of those were visiting Guernsey for the first time. This means Heathrow contributed to more than 60% of all growth year-to-date (departing passengers) as a proportion of all routes that saw positive growth. The analysis places Heathrow as the second most important route for new visitors behind Gatwick based on the average numbers between May and August.
“Alongside the positive figures, there is a mixed picture across individual routes and that is exactly why this better evidence base matters. It will help us understand how the network is changing and support our work on the air policy framework and our marketing efforts. From the first quarter of 2027 we intend for this more detailed route-level visitor information to be available through the regular Travel Bulletin.”
Alan Sillett, President of the Guernsey Hospitality Association and Member of the Tourism Advisory Board, said:
“The latest figures are encouraging for Guernsey’s visitor economy, and we are also seeing positive signs in accommodation occupancy. Every month from January to August, with the exception of February, recorded an increase in occupancy compared with last year. Particularly encouraging is the performance in June, July and August, when occupancy was up by five percentage points in each month, rising from 79% to 84%.
“That positive trend also appears to have continued into September. From speaking with our members, I am hearing of numerous hotels achieving strong occupancy levels of between 85% and 95%. These are encouraging signs for the industry and reflect the importance of maintaining good air and sea connectivity, alongside continued efforts to attract visitors to Guernsey and encourage them to stay overnight.”
The visitor and first-time visitor figures are estimates based on exit surveys conducted at the airport. Passenger figures in this release refer to individual departing passengers,rather than total passenger movements into and out of Guernsey.
